Predictive Markets Take Centre Stage at GRAF 2026 as Regulators Debate Emerging Gambling Risks
MAPUTO, Mozambique– Predictive markets and their growing convergence with financial markets have come under scrutiny at the ongoing GRAF 2026 conference in Maputo, Mozambique, as industry experts and regulators examined whether event-based trading represents the next frontier of gambling or a new regulatory blind spot.
The discussion, held during a panel session titled “Predictive Markets: The Next Gambling Frontier or a New Regulatory Blind Spot?”, explored how emerging platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly blurring the traditional boundaries between gambling and financial markets.
The panel examined the regulatory, legal and policy challenges presented by predictive markets, particularly as regulators grapple with how to classify and oversee products that can resemble financial instruments, betting exchanges or wagering products.
Key areas of discussion included consumer protection, responsible gambling, market integrity, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT) compliance, taxation and regulatory oversight.
The panellists also considered whether existing gambling and financial regulatory frameworks remain fit for purpose as the two sectors become increasingly interconnected.
The session brought together perspectives from both the gambling and financial sectors. It was moderated by Vusi Mtsweni, Chief Executive Officer of Mpumalanga Economic, with contributions from Sean Coleman, Chief Executive Officer of the South African Bookmakers’ Association; Andrew Lyman, Executive Director and Commissioner of HM Government of Gibraltar; Bashir Are, Chief Executive Officer of the Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority; Martin Sack, Gambling Consultant; and Tinashe Hofisi, Institutional Equity Research analyst at Standard Bank.
The discussion forms part of the broader conversations at GRAF 2026 in Maputo, where regulators, industry stakeholders and financial-sector experts are examining emerging trends and the evolving regulatory challenges facing the global gaming and betting industry.
